Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly has been raising similarly impressive money as Warnock in Georgia, posting $8 million in the third quarter (which included a refund from a campaign vendor). But while Republicans feel like their field is somewhat settled in Georgia with Trump and McConnell now aligned behind the same guy, the primary in Arizona is still a free-for-all that’s causing some concern for the GOP. As the major statewide elected official in the race, Attorney General Mark Brnovich would seem to start with an advantage, but he raised only $564,000 in the third quarter, which would be mediocre money for a candidate in a competitive House district, let alone a top-tier Senate race. He’s also taking incoming fire from his GOP rivals. A super PAC backing Blake Masters, the president of the Thiel Foundation, is attacking Brnovich
on the air on immigration. The motif here, as in the other ads against him from the Thiel-funded group, is that he’s been “opposing Trump.” Trump was scheduled to attend a fundraiser
for Masters at Mar-a-Lago on Wednesday.Solar energy entrepreneur Jim Lamon ended with the most cash on hand at the end of the quarter, but much of that came from a $3 million personal loan, which doesn’t exactly represent a wide base of support, while retired Maj. Gen. Michael “Mick” McGuire raised just $250,000. And there’s now another Republican in the race: Justin Olson — a member of the Arizona Corporation Commission, which regulates utilities — announced his campaign last month. Arizona has a late primary, so Republicans have until August to duke it out. But GOP outside groups are already attacking Kelly, hoping he’ll be sunk by Biden’s slipping numbers. Kelly outran Biden last year — winning 51.2% of the vote to the President’s 49.4%. But the former astronaut now has a voting record Republicans are eager to use against him.
Nevada moves up a couple of spots on the list, in part because it’s one of the few races where next year’s matchup looks mostly settled: Former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt
is likely to be challenging Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, the first Latina senator
. Laxalt may not have the strongest recent track record — he lost a gubernatorial bid in 2018 — but he has the backing of both McConnell and Trump, which allows him to look ahead to next November. Biden won the Silver State by just 2 points in 2020, so it’s fundamentally a less Democratic state than New Hampshire, and GOP inroads with Hispanic voters in 2020 could make this state even more competitive. Cortez Masto, meanwhile, could be hobbled by a divided state party. Republicans have tried to tie
the former Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair, who raised $3 million in the third quarter, to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in a preview of many more ads likely to be made about Democrats’ social safety net bill. Democrats have also run economic-themed messages, like a contrast ad
from Senate Majority PAC that begins by praising the senator for passing Covid relief and then attacks Laxalt. But they’ve also tried to cast Laxalt, Trump’s former state campaign co-chairman, as an election conspiracist. Recently, he’s been leaning into Republican rhetoric on race and education, showing up at a school board meeting
in Douglas County last month to call for banning critical race theory. Laxalt entered the race mid-quarter, raising about $1.4 million.