TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Tiffany Muller, President of End Citizens United, Joe Radosevich, VP for Campaigns at CAP Action, and Ethan Smith, Founder Upswing Research.
MEMO: Harsh Accountability for Corruption is our North Star
DATE: January 29, 2025
Data from a new battleground survey of voters in competitive House districts and states with 2026 Senate races conducted by Upswing Research illustrates Democrats’ journey to the majority begins with showing voters the consequences of Republican Corruption.
Despite pundits’ premature obituaries, Democrats do not need to find a whole new message to guide them during the next 4 years. We know what works, because it has worked before: corruption. The toughest challenge facing Democrats is not what our message is, but how to confront a communication landscape that necessitates Democrats tell one story. There are three political tests an effective story must meet. Corruption meets all three:
- Test 1: Reach Independent AND Turnout Voters. Does the moral of the story reject the false choice of appealing only to “swing” OR “turnout” voters by instead persuading both infrequent and unaligned voters that Democrats are worthy of their support?
- Test 2: Show Democrats Have What it Takes To Bring Change. The vast majority of voters, and an even higher number of the voters Democrats need to persuade, desire substantial change and blame corruption for government’s failures. Neither party has an advantage on corruption, which may be why Americans have been voting for change and demanding better for 20 years. By telling the story, can Democrats convince skeptical voters they will do whatever is needed to make government serve everyday Americans?
- Test 3: Attach Real Concerns to Republican Traits. Does the story start with Americans’ most pressing concern–their shot at the American Dream slipping away–rather than Trump and politics? Does it attach symptoms of this concern, from housing costs to job security, to a believable culprit or set of behaviors that are associated with Republicans?
Democrats’ success in 2006 and 2018 shows that corruption has been central to the campaigns that have taken back majorities. Since 2016, the party trusted to take on corruption has won every time. Our 2025 battleground data points in the same direction. The survey tested various options for how Democrats can land the corruption argument. Two recommendations emerged:
- Do not defend “the Government” at all costs—defend the American people. Republicans are baiting Democrats into the losing fight of defending the status quo by challenging the rules–including laws and practices that should curb corruption. Instead of siding with a system voters are disgusted with, Democrats must be the impatient voices demanding better. When Democrats have to defend an existing practice they must show how it helps the public–it is not enough to rely on the law. When Democrats appear to side with old habits, they risk not being taken seriously by voters who believe the entire government requires major change to meet Americans’ needs.
- Always show how corruption harms Americans. Simply describing the corruption and self-dealing inside the new administration only goes so far. We have to show how Republican corruption is harming honest Americans–cuts to specific and vital programs like Medicaid, weakened regulations including for safe drinking water, and favors for special interests like drug companies at our expense. Focusing on the specific consequences of corruption is immediately concerning and helps Democrats tell a story that speaks to the problems Americans are facing rather than irrelevant headlines and Donald Trump. This approach links existing perceptions of Republicans with the strongest argument against the administration from our data.
Demanding accountability for the corruption wealthy insiders have unleashed, which has and will continue to fleece honest Americans of their shot at a good life, is Democrats path to victory in 2026. The story clears three crucial tests for Democrats’ overarching story:
- Test 1: Reach Independent AND Turnout Voters. The corrupting influence of donors and insiders is consistently the only concern that overperforms with both infrequent voters and independents. Our 2025 data on who voters blame for the government not working for regular people show this trend continuing (Q.38).
- Turnout voters assign the most blame to wealthy donors and big corporations’ lobbying. When compared to all battleground voters, they assign less blame to every other item tested and are much more likely to blame wealthy donors.
- Compared to the rest of the electorate, independent voters assign significantly higher blame to only two factors: wealthy donors and big corporations’ lobbying.
- Calling out the consequences of corruption and lack of accountability were the most effective attacks we tested with independent and infrequent voters (Q105).
- Test 2: Show Democrats Have What it Takes To Bring Change. While infrequent voters are more likely to hold some positive sentiments towards Democrats than independent voters are, both groups have heightened concerns about whether Democrats believe in the American dream and if they will do what’s necessary when in power–especially if they will take on corruption. These concerns need to be met head on for voters to trust Democrats to deliver change (Q.56).
- Key voters are disproportionately more likely to associate Republicans with doing what’s necessary (Ind: R+20; Turnout: R+22), taking on corruption (Ind: R+6; Turnout: D+2) and even believing in the American Dream (Ind: R+26; Turnout: R+10).
- These traits stand out for being influential concepts that key voters associate more closely with the GOP than their partisanship would suggest.
- Independent voters also have especially heightened concerns about Democrats holding people accountable (R+18).
- Test 3: Attach Real Concerns to Republican Traits. Voters know Republicans serve the wealthy (R+31), and expect them more than Dems to use government for their own financial benefit (R+7) instead of to help the American people (Q.79). This should be damning enough, but our reality is more cynical. To exploit Republicans’ weakness, voters need to see the consequences of corruption. And they need to see Democrats rooting it out. The story is relevant when it starts with Americans’ declining quality of life–not politics. It is believable when it connects these concerns to a plausible culprit: corruption. And it is effective when it goes beyond the mere presence of billionaires or cynical expectations about politics to show how honest Americans are being harmed.
- Voters blame donors far more than mere billionaires; this is especially true among infrequent and independent voters. In fact, the only group of voters who focus their blame on billionaires are politically active Democrats who follow news.
- We tested eight concepts related to corruption against four other potential frames, including Trump’s chaos, his administration being extreme and conservative, and his government being unqualified. Corruption arguments were the most concerning, especially with independent men.
- The most effective corruption arguments against the administration called out a lack of accountability and named specific harms that Americans will face, such as cuts to programs that help poor Americans buy groceries (SNAP). The attacks that stopped at self-dealing raised strong concerns with key voters, but did not resonate as strongly with some independent women and turnout voters.
Conclusion
Democrats should focus on telling the story of how honest Americans are losing their shot at the American Dream because of the corruption wealthy insiders have unleashed. This story puts Democrats on the offense in the arena voters actually care about. Democrats must show how Republicans are in it for themselves and will do nothing to stop the corruption holding us back. And we must name the specific consequences that will harm Americans and experiment with new ways to show Democrats are taking their gloves off to fight back.
The question “who will take on corruption” should be a key measuring stick for the 2026 cycle, and can guide Democrats early steps from candidate recruitment to party-wide messaging. Lastly, the consequences of corruption in our politics and economy are prevalent enough for this story to be told repeatedly and throughout many upcoming political fights–from taxes and the elimination of public protections to climate and education. Now is not the time for Democrats to wander in the wilderness, reinventing the wheel. It is time to follow our north star of taking on corruption back to a majority.
The formula is clear: Americans harmed → By GOP corruption → Dems will hold accountable
Battleground survey highlights: This survey was conducted by Upswing Research on behalf of Accountable.US, Campaign Legal Center Action, Center for American Progress Action Fund, Court Accountability Action, End Citizens United and Public Citizen. All the data is public, including a summary memo, full toplines showing exact text, and demographics in the banners.
Q.38: Who do voters blame for the Government not working for regular people?
| Higher number means more blame. | Corruption | Social & Cultural | Partisan | ||||
| Wealthy donors | Big Corp. lobbying | FYI: Billionaires | Woke policies | Experts | Dems | Reps | |
| All Battleground Voters | 17 | 34 | -3 | 20 | -24 | 22 | 29 |
| Did not vote in 2024 | 30 | 31 | -62 | -9 | -49 | -6 | 12 |
| Independent | 31 | 45 | -13 | 16 | -30 | 24 | 40 |
Q.56: Do voters associate key traits with either party?
| Net associated with party. | Corruption | |||
| Serves the wealthy | Is taking on corruption | Will hold people accountable | Uses government for personal financial gain | |
| All Battleground Voters | R+31 | R+1 | R+5 | R+7 |
| Did not vote in 2024 | R+34 | D+2* | D+23 | R+13 |
| Independent | R+38 | R+6 | R+18 | R+9 |
| Net associated with party. | Social & Cultural Approach | |||
| Bipartisan solutions | Will do what’s necessary | Believes in the American Dream | Wants to shake things up in Washington | |
| All Battleground Voters | D+8 | R+11 | R+12 | R+40 |
| Did not vote in 2024 | D+25 | R+22* | R+10* | R+6 |
| Independent | D+11 | R+20 | R+26 | R+41 |
* – In the generic ballot, this group is D+20, these are key traits where Dems are less associated than what we’d expect from the group’s partisanship as a whole.