A new poll of Arizona voters, commissioned by End Citizens United and Let America Vote and conducted by Global Strategy Group (GSG), shows the attorney general and secretary of state races are in a dead heat, despite a partisan environment favorable to Republicans. The poll reveals that these races are fertile ground for Democrats to take on and defeat Republicans by exposing their extremist plans to restrict the freedom to vote.
“Kris Mayes and Adrian Fontes are appealing to voters who are repulsed by Abe Hamadeh and Mark Finchem’s extremism,” said ECU // LAV President Tiffany Muller. “It’s imperative for Mayes and Fontes to go on the offensive about their opponents’ rhetoric and plans to subvert our democracy. These are potent issues for voters and it presents a path to victory for both Mayes and Fontes.”
Key Findings:
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Republicans have a partisan advantage
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Voters in Arizona are seven points more likely to self-identify as Republicans than Democrats (41% Democrat/48% Republican).
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Although President Biden won here in 2020, his favorability is well underwater at -14 points (41% favorable/55% unfavorable).
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Donald Trump is dead even (47% favorable/47% unfavorable).
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Democratic candidates for attorney general and secretary of state outperform Republicans’ partisan advantage
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While candidates in the AG and SOS races are lesser known than those in top of the ticket races, Democrats do substantially better than expected based on the partisan environment alone.
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Democrat Kris Mayes and Abraham Hamadeh are in a dead heat in the race for AG (45% Mayes/45% Hamadeh).
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Democrat Adrian Fontes has a small lead over Mark Finchem in the SOS race (46% Fontes/44% Finchem).
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Both Democrats take solid leads once voters hear more information about the candidates
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In both races, voters separately heard positive statements about both candidates based on their own communications, a negative statement on each Democrat, and a short battery of hits against each Republican.
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After a simulation of the AG race, Kris Mayes takes a five-point lead (48% Mayes/43% Hamadeh)
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Fontes leads by double-digits (51% Fontes/41% Finchem).
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Election issues are critical hits against the Republican candidates and raise major concerns for voters
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Voters have a negative view of Hamadeh and Finchem’s controversial and false statements regarding voting and elections. These are critical to highlight.
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Hamadeh’s extremist remarks about limiting the eligibility to vote raise major doubts about him for 42% of voters.
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Finchem’s plans for voter restrictions raise major doubts for 41% of voters.
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GSG surveyed 800 likely general election voters in Arizona from September 13-20. The margin of error is +/- 3.5%.
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