NEW POLL: Project 2025 a Loser for Battleground Congressional Republicans
Anti-Project 2025 Democrat Leads Pro-Project 2025 Republican by 18 Points in Generic Ballot
A new poll, commissioned by End Citizens United Action Fund and conducted by Global Strategy Group, found that Project 2025 is deeply unpopular among likely voters in congressional battleground districts and is poised to damage Republican campaigns.
Likely voters in congressional battleground districts view Project 2025 more unfavorably than favorably by a more than 4-to-1 ratio and 72% of those familiar with it say they oppose Project 2025’s policies and ideas. In head-to-head testing, a generic Democratic congressional candidate has a 4-point lead over a generic Republican. However, when the choice is between an anti-Project 2025 Democrat and a pro-Project 2025 Republican, the Democratic lead increases by 14 points, to an 18-point advantage for Democrats.
“Project 2025 isn’t just a loser for Trump, it’s a loser for all Republicans,” said End Citizens United Action Fund President Tiffany Muller. “Voters know that Project 2025 is an extreme, anti-democratic agenda that will strip them of their rights and freedoms – and they will hold Republicans up and down the ballot accountable for it this November.”
Key Findings:
- Project 2025 has broken through the clutter, and voters do not like what they are hearing. 77% of voters are familiar with Project 2025, and they are hearing negative coverage, as 55% of voters report having seen or heard something negative about Project 2025 in recent weeks. When asked what negative things they have heard in an open-ended question, voters most frequently cite that it takes away rights, especially women’s rights, by banning abortion.
- Project 2025 is deeply unpopular and seen as extreme and harmful. 52% of voters are unfavorable toward Project 2025 (45% are very unfavorable), while just 11% are favorable, a more than 4-to-1 unfavorable to favorable ratio. Among voters who are familiar with it, 72% oppose the policies and ideas of Project 2025, with 53% strongly opposed. Opposition is high across the board: 92% of Democrats, 69% of Independents, 48% of Republicans, 77% of women, 67% of men, and 80% of suburban women oppose it.
- Voters who are familiar with Project 2025 are more likely to think, if it were implemented, it would be harmful to the U.S. rather than helpful. 3 in 4 voters who are familiar with Project 2025 believe it is extreme. They also maintain that it is far-right (73%), authoritarian (72%), anti-democratic (71%), and dangerous (70%).
- Despite Trump’s attempts to distance himself, voters understand that Trump backs Project 2025. Among those familiar with Project 2025, 75% closely associate it with Donald Trump and 79% believe Trump supports the policies and ideas of Project 2025. Most importantly for candidates for Congress, voters do not let congressional Republicans off the hook. 78% believe Republicans in Congress support Project 2025’s policies and ideas.
- Support for Project 2025 has the potential to do deep damage to the Republican Party’s chances in November. Among those familiar with Project 2025, 64% report that a candidate’s support for it makes them less likely to vote for the candidate, and a 52% majority says it makes them much less likely.
- Project 2025 is a liability for Republican candidates, costing them net 14 points on the generic ballot when the candidates are a generic anti-Project 2025 Democrat and a pro-Project 2025 Republican. In House battleground districts, a generic Democratic candidate for Congress has a 4-point lead over a generic Republican. But, when the choice is framed as a generic Democrat who opposes Project 2025 vs. a Republican who supports Project 2025, the Democratic advantage increases by 14 points, to an 18-point Democratic lead. A Project 2025 frame costs Republicans and helps Democrats especially among young voters and seniors, among whom the Democratic advantage increases by 17 points each with a Project 2025 framed ballot. Notably, Project 2025 is even harmful to Republicans among conservatives, where the Republican advantage drops by 23 points with a Project 2025 frame.
- Educating voters about the extreme plans in Project 2025 and the devastating ideas supported by its authors can be a powerful tool in persuading voters to oppose Republican candidates. For example, 67% of voters say it is concerning (55% extremely concerning) to hear that a Republican candidate supports Trump’s Project 2025, which would ban abortion nationwide with no exceptions, even for rape, incest, or the life of the mother. 67% find it concerning (53% extremely concerning) that a candidate supports Project 2025, which gives President Trump unprecedented power and guts our system of checks and balances at the core of American democracy, consolidating power in the Oval Office like other authoritarian dictatorships around the world. Additionally, 67% of voters say it is concerning (45% extremely concerning) upon learning that a Republican candidate supports Trump’s Project 2025, whose authors support raising the Social Security retirement age, which would cut benefits for nearly three-quarters of Americans.
Global Strategy Group conducted a survey of 1,212 likely voters in U.S. House of Representatives battleground districts between August 22nd and August 28th, 2024. The survey has a confidence interval of +/- 2.8%.
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