A new poll, commissioned by End Citizens United (ECU) and conducted by Impact Research, shows that Democrats are in a strong position while protecting democracy and taking on corruption are winning issues in crucial House battleground districts.
“In the final stretch of the election, Democrats have a real opportunity to show voters that they’re the party fighting to protect their rights and freedoms, while Republicans are doubling down on serving their corporate special interest donors,” said End Citizens United President Tiffany Muller. “This poll underscores that the path to victory in November lies in standing up to the powerful few and putting the needs of everyday Americans first.”
Key Findings:
- The battleground environment has improved for Democrats since we last polled in June. Vice President Harris leads Donald Trump by 4 points on the four-way ballot (48-44), a 5-point improvement from June when Trump was up 1 point over Biden. Additionally, Democrats have a 3 points lead on the generic ballot and named Democrats are up 6 points over their named Republican opponents.
- Protecting democracy is one of the top issues in deciding how voters will decide in November. Nearly two-thirds (62%) of battleground voters say protecting democracy will be extremely important in determining how they’ll vote, a close second only to inflation and the cost of living (68%). Protecting voting rights (59%) and cracking down on corruption (55%) will also be important issues for voters in November – outpacing or at least on par with other issues like border security (57%) and crime (50%).
- Voters trust Democrats more than Republicans on protecting democracy – giving Democrats an opportunity to further define both themselves and Republicans. By a 14-point margin, battleground voters trust Democrats more than Republicans. However, messaging and learning more about policies Democrats support to protect democracy help grow the Democrats’ advantage, particularly among younger voters and voters of color.
- Despite a strong partisan advantage on protecting democracy, a sizable share of voters do not trust either party on standing up to government corruption or taking on corporate special interests. While battleground voters give Democrats a net 11-point advantage on standing up to corporate special interests and a 7-point advantage on taking on government corruption, 31% of voters do not believe either party is doing this – a clear opportunity for Democrats to define themselves and their opponents.
- Voters want to know their concerns are being heard – Democrats need to acknowledge that and show that they’re the party fighting to protect rights and freedoms. Not only are Democrats fighting to protect democracy to ensure that voters’ voices are heard, Democrats should also message on taking on the greedy corporations that are threatening our democracy and jacking up prices for consumers. The throughline is clear – Democrats are taking on the powerful to make the lives of regular people better.
Messaging Recommendations
- Drive the clear contrast between the two parties – Democrats are fighting to protect democracy and regular people while Republicans are a threat to democracy and beholden to corporate special interests. Defining Republicans as the party threatening our democracy, rights, and freedoms is both credible and concerning to voters. From their support of Project 2025 to their neglect of oversight of the Supreme Court, Republicans are the party that will cater to corporate special interests and the powerful at the expense of regular people and our democracy.
- Democrats are working to ban members of Congress from trading stocks while Republicans are taking money from Wall Street and trying to privatize and gut Social Security and Medicare.
- Democrats believe that people should be free to make their own decisions and make their voices heard, including making their own decisions when it comes to abortion, while Republicans are supporting Project 2025 that reshapes the government to let Trump purge people who are disloyal and ban abortion in all 50 states.
- Democrats will crack down on the corporate special interests that are rigging the system in their favor and making record profits by price gouging and increasing costs for families, while Republicans cater to these corporate special interest donors and give massive tax breaks to them.
- Engaging on these issues moves voters towards Democrats. After voters learn about the ways Democrats are working to defend democracy and stand up to corporate special interests and corruption and how Republicans are working to perpetuate and profit from it, Democrats gain a net 5 points on the congressional ballot, including 5 points among Independents.
Impact Research surveyed 1,000 likely voters in congressional battleground districts from August 5-11, 2024. The margin of error is +/-3.1%.
ECU is dedicated to combating the two biggest challenges facing our democracy: the corrosive impact of Big Money and attempts to block access to the ballot box. Since its founding in 2015, the group has had over 1 million donors and raised $200 million, with an average donation of just $14. The group has more than 4 million members nationwide.
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